REQUIRED READING – AT 10:08 A.M. ET: Dan Balz, the excellent political reporter for the Washington Post, has written an analysis of Republican prospects in the 2016 presidential election. It is not pleasant reading, but it's important. And I agree...this will be an uphill fight requiring the best candidate and superb, modern tactics. From WaPo:
A recent conversation with a veteran of GOP presidential campaigns raised this question: Which, if any, of the recent battleground states are likely to become more Republican by 2016? The consensus: very few.
That reality highlights one problem Republicans face as they seek to regain the White House after six years under President Obama. Lots of factors affect elections: the quality of the candidates, the state of the economy, the effectiveness of the campaigns. But in a country whose demographics continue to change, Republicans will begin this campaign with one significant disadvantage.
Over the past three decades, the political leanings of many states have shifted dramatically. What once was a sizable Republican advantage in the electoral college has become a decided Democratic advantage.
One way to look at this is by comparing two overlapping 20-year periods. In the first, 1980 through 2000, Republicans won four of six presidential elections. In the second, 1992 through 2012, Democrats won four of six.
COMMENT: Please read the whole thing. It's worth it. A Republican candidate can win in 2016 under the right conditions, but one of those conditions is to abandon the self-defeating habit of the Republican Party in giving up whole sections of the population without a fight. I want every vote. I want to win. I don't think there's any honor in "losing well." We are talking about the future of our country.
January 20, 2014
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